Saturday, 8 May 2010

Election Fever: Final Scores

Except, well... it's not the final scores really, is it? There's still so much to play for, although we've reached the point where the electorate no longer have any say in it. There's also doubt over whether these results are the final results, given that some people were turned away from polling stations even though they'd arrived before 10pm. It's pretty disgraceful when people are denied their right to vote just because there aren't enough administrators to process the queues. Why didn't the polling stations simply stay open until everyone had voted? This isn't America, y'know, we don't expect that kind of scandal over here.

Anyway... the final results, in terms of seats, vote share and geography. The graph below is shamelessly nicked from the Guardian's website.

Look at that results map. As you can see, the North of England is broadly Labour territory. We really should have our own parliament - in fact there were plans for a regional parliament in the North West years ago, championed by John Prescott, but it was unpopular with the public because it was deemed too expensive and not powerful enough. But at least it would have paved the way for more regional autonomy, and given the results above, that's certainly something we need.

As you can see from the pie chart, the Conservatives only secured about a third of all votes. Labour's vote share is probably higher than most people expected. The Liberal Democrats actually did very poorly in terms of vote share and ended up losing seats. They would probably make the point that almost 25% of people voted for them, yet they get less than 10% of the seats in parliament because of our screwed up voting system. This is a valid point to make - at times, the current system has screwed us all, regardless of our political preferences. Reform is long overdue. But you still can't escape the fact that the Liberal Democrats have really underperformed here. What happened to Cleggmania? How have they not managed to significantly increase their vote share after the breakthrough made in the election debates?

There's always been an assumption on the part of the Lib Dems that, if they could make such a breakthrough and if the voting system was reformed, that they would be catapulted into the big leagues. But even if we had proportional representation, they would still only have come third. Yet at this moment Nick Clegg is potentially the most powerful man in Britain. It is up to Clegg and his party now to decide whether our next government will be predominatly Conservative or predominantly Labour. Doesn't that strike you as just a little bit unfair?

When I started this series of blogs, I stated that I wanted to vote Liberal Democrat but thought it would be more practical to vote Labour. My position has shifted significantly during the election campaign and I doubt now that I'll ever vote again for any party other than Labour. To be fair, I've been drifting away from the Liberal Democrats ever since they dropped their best policy - the one penny in the pound tax for education. They've been moving further to the right since Clegg became leader and during this campaign I've seen a lot of things I don't like. His reaction to Bigotgate was one of them. Clegg has always claimed that his party would usher in a new way of conducting politics, yet he was as quick as anyone else to jump on the bandwagon and castigate Brown. Clegg's incredulous claim that he has never said anything about anyone behind their back is ridiculous. Everybody moans about their customers, colleagues and bosses. It's human nature. In the debates, Clegg came off as pious and smug, whilst Brown has seemed more and more human throughout the campaign.

Now Clegg is showing his true colours by announcing that he will listen to the Tories offer for a coalition before talking to Labour. He says the party with the biggest vote share has the right to make an offer first. In a sense, I can see where he's coming from - if Labour and the Lib Dems formed a coalition government and left the Tories out in the cold after obtaining the biggest vote share, many people would be outraged. But in terms of policies, beliefs and practices, the Lib Dems have almost nothing in common with the Tories. To make a pact with them would be to betray the people who voted Lib Dem. What you have to remember here is that most Lib Dem voters, if given a choice between Labour and Tory, would choose Labour. Most of them would be appalled to see Clegg helping the Tories into power.

Cameron says that Brown has lost his mandate to govern. But none of the main parties have a mandate to govern now. Despite the fact that they were up against a party that has been in power for 13 years with a hugely unpopular prime minister, the Conservatives still couldn't manage an overall majority. In fact, 64% of voters chose not to vote for them. That's hardly an endorsement from the masses.

The best way to sort this out would be to have another general election, this time with an alternative vote system. This is a system whereby each voter can assign a number to each candidate on the voting ballot in order of preference. So on my ballot, Labour would be first preference, Lib Dem would be second, etc. Of course, this is impractical given how long it would take to introduce such a system and work out the bugs. The Tories would never go for it anyway - they are wholly against proportional representation because it threatens their concentrated power bases. So with 62% of voters choosing parties that advocate proportional representation, the single largest party is one that will not even contemplate it.

What will happen now? Who knows? The Liberal Democrats, despite coming third, are now in position to decide who governs Britain. They will either choose a party which has only secured 34% of votes or a party that has only secured 29% of votes. Alternatively, they may refuse to form a coalition with anyone, which will mean a minority government that can't get any legislation passed through parliament.

In any case, it's a shitty shitty day for democracy.

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